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  #26  
Old 03-07-2020, 02:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Epstein View Post
(I know some think I'm overreacting).
Well, it's hard to say at this point. The current administration is doing all it can foment chaos and confusion.

As long as it "triggers" the "libtard" scientists everything is fine.

I'm now at a complete loss as to what to believe.
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  #27  
Old 03-07-2020, 03:20 PM
Shawn Everette Shawn Everette is offline
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We'll if people don't want to buy anything anymore, and now are too afraid to pay money to be in public, I'm not really sure what other business model there is supposed to be. Anybody tried twitch streaming with glass? People seem to throw all sorts of money at that nonsense.

Personally I'm not trying to focus on amassing inventory until I have a better idea of when we might see an end to this thing. I'm trying to build a couple wholesale relationships should this stick around through the money season.
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  #28  
Old 03-07-2020, 04:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Epstein View Post
(I know some think I'm overreacting).
*****
I've been considering this as I made some simple items this afternoon mainly aimed at helping bring back muscle tone from such a quiet year for me by choice.

I'm wondering how old you actually are?

In 2008 the world simply froze one day and it was for sale by the side of the road. Anyone in glass that had debt, or too many employees failed. I watch Stadelman's business go from a furnace a day in orders to out of business in less than two months since it relied on cash flow. Victor and I were selling glass off the tailgates of our trucks at the farmer's markets.

We've been in a market expansion for 12 years now, the longest expansion ever apparently. Now, we're hitting a major speed bump. I probably lost more money last week than you make in a year. I'm guessing. Even so, we don't view this as the end of the world. It will indeed change and you will, to your dismay discover that people prefer to have food on the table and the rent paid than to have an ornament experience. It's not just COVID 19, it would happen in a normal downturn. Art is the first thing to go in the tank and the last thing to come out. I expected the downturn around election time. I didn't get out of the market fast enough but I'm still OK, I just have even less customers than I thought I would. We'll see the crucibles in a downturn as well, but we're not panicing. We wound up working with High Temp since they were desperate for new revenue flows.

Ask yourself what would have happened to your business model if it had gone south later this year for other reasons? Would you have cancelled your lease and essentially hid under a couch in that instance.?

COVID will mostly kill people like me, old, heart condition, breathing issues, blah blah blah so, I'm avoiding going out much, seeing people much and staying really clean. Not a single person you know, or have ever known will be alive in fifty years. That's life, that's the life cycle. If you can't weather this, perhaps you need a more secure career. I just don't know what that would be. Layoffs will be everywhere. You'd have just as much trouble selling glass at home as you would by a bar.

By a bar... that seems like a good place to weather this. Dip your fingers in your drink.
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  #29  
Old 03-08-2020, 11:20 AM
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I'm 31. So a relative youngster.

I remember the 2008 downturn. And the suddenness of it. I wanted to invest in some real estate then for when the market went back up, but didn't have the cash. Only now do I have some resources and everything is 10x price! Arguh.

My point is, if this thing really is going to tank our economy like the Great Recession, quarantining, social distancing, etc, which it may very well, global supply chains etc. Investing $20k in the build out of a shop, and another $1100 a month might not be the best idea.

Make-your-owns are basically a good 50% of my business plan. If they are going to be completely out, my model won't work and I'll be pissing (my money) in the wind.

I could build out a trailer and get it running at my house for a fraction of the cost. $5k for the trailer, "free" rent, etc. Maybe I switch to the cremains-by-mail business (what a morbid thought that is).

Could I survive a downturn? Yes. A great recession? Not with the business model I've been preparing. And certainly not the current one w/o BYO.

Now is the time to change things up.
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  #30  
Old 03-08-2020, 11:42 AM
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The arts do poorly in every version of a recession. As a teenager, I doubt you really experienced the impact of 2008. It's good you remember it. I remember every month MB and I turning to each other saying "We're still here". Virtually all of our gallery outlets vanished. I sold glass off the tailgate as I mentioned. Our gallery selling in NM vanished in a bankruptcy. It was very hand to mouth.

At one time, glass was rare. Selling it was easy. That's not true anymore and so many of you have adopted the "experience" as a subset of pumpkins. Glass as an artform to be explored vanished well before this stuff.

Glass is common in the very worst sense of the term. I would sincerely suggest lighting. Everybody needs lighting. It's what we do in Shanghai. Any port in a storm.
Downturns are inevitably opportunities as well.

As to trailers. I bought two for the color classes. One cost under 2K. I built the furnaces. I did not buy them. It cost 2K each, no more. Annealers can be done for 1K. Gloryhole? 1K. If you don't buy the stuff, it will not cost much. Read GlassnotesIV. It spells out how to do that. It's not hard at all.
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  #31  
Old 03-08-2020, 05:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Epstein View Post
I'm 31. So a relative youngster.

I remember the 2008 downturn. And the suddenness of it. I wanted to invest in some real estate then for when the market went back up, but didn't have the cash. Only now do I have some resources and everything is 10x price! Arguh.

My point is, if this thing really is going to tank our economy like the Great Recession, quarantining, social distancing, etc, which it may very well, global supply chains etc. Investing $20k in the build out of a shop, and another $1100 a month might not be the best idea.

Make-your-owns are basically a good 50% of my business plan. If they are going to be completely out, my model won't work and I'll be pissing (my money) in the wind.

I could build out a trailer and get it running at my house for a fraction of the cost. $5k for the trailer, "free" rent, etc. Maybe I switch to the cremains-by-mail business (what a morbid thought that is).

Could I survive a downturn? Yes. A great recession? Not with the business model I've been preparing. And certainly not the current one w/o BYO.

Now is the time to change things up.
Do you really believe this? Its contrary to everything we know about contagions and economies. We have gone through 11 of these contagions at my count since 2000 and each one was going to end the world as we know it according to the media. This too shall pass by. Ask yourself who stands to benefit from this in the short term and then decide who is best to listen to for unbiased info. If you look at a chart of the DJIA since the stock exchanges have been archiving prices you will see a regular pattern of downturns (corrections) over time, each of which recovered and then was surpassed over time. Plotting a straight best data fit over time shows steady growth of 5%-10% per year over all. This is a normal market behavior and if its not part of your plan, it should be. Unless you need the money right now, in which case you shouldn't be in equities, Ignore your equity investments in the micro sense. Day trading is not a viable strategy for most of us. Everyone has been predicting a 10%-15% correction for the last 2 years or more contagions or not. This should not be a surprise or a catastrophe. Take a breath....Step back....
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  #32  
Old 03-08-2020, 06:11 PM
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The unfortunate thing about all of this is that it takes money to make money.

Sorry.
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  #33  
Old 03-08-2020, 06:44 PM
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Larry, yes, I do think this bug is bigger and badder (potentially) than anything since the 1918 Spanish Flu.

China's economy had been shut down for 6 weeks. That doesn't happen.

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  #34  
Old 03-08-2020, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Pete VanderLaan View Post
The unfortunate thing about all of this is that it takes money to make money.

Sorry.
I always take it with a grain of salt when someone tells me they "started their business from nothing." Can't pull yourself up by your bootstraps if you don't have any boots in the first place.

When I returned to the States in May of 2008 we set up home in Portland, OR. By February 2009 we were out of money, our health insurance was gone, and I couldn't get a job delivering pizzas. I had to sell my rare records on eBay to pay rent and buy food. That was gone by end of April.

I would listen to well-meaning friends and family try and make suggestions for how to hustle for cash. Say things like "You could offer to haul junk to the dump for people. There's all kinds of stuff from foreclosures that landlords need disposed of." "Oh yeah" I would say. "How do I haul all this stuff?" "Well, you just need to get a truck and trailer..." I would wait to see if it would sink-in. *Long pause* "How do I get a truck and trailer?" *another long pause* "Well, you'll figure something out. You're a smart guy."
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  #35  
Old 03-08-2020, 11:04 PM
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Yep. I considered myself "luxky" to have a job making pizzas and salads. Nothing was available in the arta/music business. Even more lucky I had a family with some money in the bank to help me out.

Australian market down 6.3%
Nikkei down 6%

Buckle up for tomorrow.
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  #36  
Old 03-13-2020, 02:04 PM
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You have at your fingertips the experience of hundreds of years of experience in a business that is finkle by nature and changing everyday. Pete and others are giving you guiless free advice it would be prudent to listen in your current narrowcasted and particular situation.

That is my only advice...be receptive to the voices you hear here. They have no stake in your failure only in your success. I do wish you success bud call if you get sideways.
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  #37  
Old 03-13-2020, 03:46 PM
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Trumps rose garden news event was the best yet but it's way too late. It's coming to a meeting near you.

Keep the number of people in your studio down to zero and develop a protocol for everyone. Avoid people period. The Stuff Brian Graham put up is just excellent. Wipes are scarce as hens teeth now but I was able to get clorox yesterday. Wipe it all down.
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  #38  
Old 03-13-2020, 05:00 PM
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"Larry, yes, I do think this bug is bigger and badder (potentially) than anything since the 1918 Spanish Flu."

One of the interesting comparisons between now and then is the Stanley cup. They stopped the hockey season and did not award the cup the year of the flu.
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  #39  
Old 03-13-2020, 06:23 PM
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One of the interesting comparisons between now and then is the Stanley cup. They stopped the hockey season and did not award the cup the year of the flu.
From the Seattle Times: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...n-coronavirus/
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  #40  
Old 03-13-2020, 06:31 PM
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Sign that just went up on my door.
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File Type: jpg IMG_20200313_155914 (2).jpg (24.6 KB, 57 views)
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  #41  
Old 03-13-2020, 07:08 PM
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Pretty much sums it up:

Screen Shot 2020-03-13 at 7.59.14 PM.jpg
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  #42  
Old 03-16-2020, 01:09 AM
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Due to the Washington State announcement tonight we are going to stop blow your owns and classes. We will just be making our own stuff as long as possible. All hopes that we get a vaccine soon.
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  #43  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Art Freas View Post
. All hopes that we get a vaccine soon.
****
Happy talk. It will take a year or more.

What is really being sought out is an interventive that can control the RNA replication as was done with HIV. It actually worked. Even that will take months and then would have to go to industry to tool up for production.
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  #44  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:11 AM
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Warm weather will put this to an end. And then magically I am sure the stock market will come back.

It’s a real shame to see this situation being exploited to take the markets down. I thought it would be bad but not this bad.
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  #45  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:14 AM
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The business cycle is essentially interrupted. You're going to see a lot of bankrupt businesses and not small ones. The market doesn't like uncertainty and that's what the administration is offering.

"A democrat Hoax"
"14 cases going down to none"
"Everyone can get a test".
"It will all go away in April."

On and on. I can't see why you say the situation is being exploited to take it down. What do you mean?

In acuality, without testing, we're flying blind.
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  #46  
Old 03-16-2020, 11:11 AM
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I think the vaccine will be sooner from a lot I am hearing. I like the RNA approach for folks that catch it but vaccine will return us to more of a normal world.
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  #47  
Old 03-16-2020, 02:22 PM
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It's 82 degrees here in Florida and spreading in community. Warm weather ain't going to do jack other than maybe slow it down a bit.

A vaccine will take at minimum a year. That's a long time. Then we need 350,000,000 doses.

Found out my family friend has been in ICU for 9 days in suburbs of NYC. His wife is also positive but asymptomatic so far.
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  #48  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:20 PM
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If you can’t get any hand sanitizers, there is always booze. Expensive but......
My husband made a list:

Booker’s Bourbon – 130 Proof

George T. Stagg, Jr. – 140 Proof (produced by Buffalo Trace Distillery)

Bacardi 151 — 151 Proof

Balkan Vodka — 176 Proof

And for the foolhardy: Spirytus Delikatesowy – 192 Proof
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  #49  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:37 PM
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Cut it out.
Wash your hands constantly, don't go out. Shelter in place.

This is not an audition, just your life.

Act like it. See you on the other side hopefully. About 90 days.
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  #50  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:45 PM
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I am staying home. But my husband is a medical professional. We have to deal with it. Humor helps but you still need to be responsible. Yes, wash your hands and stay home
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